Nfl underdogs

Nfl underdogs

As a result, after Week 14, you see larger point spreads and very lopsided games, in terms.

NFL Spread Betting Trends.

In 2003, Richard Borghesi published a paper called, Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market.

In this paper, Borghesi analyzed Week 15 through the playoffs from and found that, after Week 14, there is increased value in betting large, home underdogs.

Our research analysts went through our archived NFL data, which begins in 2003, to find if these trends continued and how contrarian bettors should approach the final weeks of the NFL season.

To begin, we first analyzed our entire database of NFL home underdogs from (not including the season)., all Home Dogs, home Dogs 2 pts, home Dogs 8 pts.

Weeks (50.4) 59-52 (53.2) 17-8 (68.0 playoffs 7-9 (43.8) 6-7 (46.2) 1-0 (100 overall 76-77 (49.7) 65-59 (.4) 18-8 (69.2 as you can see, the win percentage for home underdogs against the spread (ATS) increased with the.

Next, we analyzed how home underdogs have performed in recent years.

The table below includes data from (not including the season).

All Home Dogs, home Dogs 2 pts, home Dogs 8 pts.

Weeks (51.2) 22-17 (56.4 ) 6-0 (100 playoffs 6-4 (60.0) 5-4 (.6) 1-0 (100 overall 28-25 (52.8) 27-21 (56.3) 7-0 (100 since 2008, weve seen the same correlation as ATS win percentage increased with the amount of points a home underdog receives.

Our analysis backs up Borghesis initial findings, indicating there is value with large NFL home underdogs from Week 15 through the playoffs.

Last week, our, nFL Marketwatch article selected Kansas City, getting.5 points (at the time of publication at home against Green Bay.

As the lone home underdog of eight or more points in Week 15, the Chiefs ended the Packers perfect season with a straight-up victory.

Kansas Citys ATS win improved home underdogs of eight or more points to 19-8 (70.4) since 2003 and 8-, when applying this.

At the time of publication, there are only three home underdogs, with the largest being Indianapolis.5 against Houston, so we dont anticipate any games fitting in Week.

However, be sure to track all NFL Week 16 line movement on your Live Odds page and going forward this NFL season for home underdogs of eight points or more.

Pinnacles lines were used to determine ATS records.

Daniel Fabrizio President m Reach me via email.

If youre of a certain age, you may remember a certain superhero from the Saturday morning cartoons.

Underdog was a very popular show during the Nixon Administration, featuring a mild-mannered canine named Shoeshine Boy who morphed into the hero anytime his lady love Sweet Polly Purebread was in danger.

They dont make shows like that anymore, but underdogs still capture the hearts and imaginations of NFL betting fans.

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There is no end to amount of research you can do to try to find different angles or systems to bet on the NBA. .


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